Spatial Projections of Participatory System Dynamics Modeling Outcomes: Exploring Oil Palm and REDD consequences for Local Livelihoods in Papua, Indonesia

Anglais

Sandker, M.(1,2) ; Puntodewo, A.(2) ; Sitorus, F.(3) ; Purnomo, H.(2) ; Yumte, Y.(3) ; Ruiz-Pérez, M.(1) ; Campbell B.M.(2,4)

(1) UAM ; (2) CIFOR ; (3) IUCN ; (4) CGIAR, CCAFS

This paper reports on combining the system dynamics software STELLA with the spatial simulation software GEOMOD (IDRISI) in order to visualize simulated forest cover changes produced by STELLA on maps. A socio-ecological model has been built in STELLA for Kaimana district including spatial and many non-spatial components. The model is built in a participatory manner with district officials and non-governmental organization personnel. We used it to explore environmental and social impacts of large scale plantation investments or payments for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). We focused on the socio-economic consequences district level decisions would have for local livelihoods. The simulated outcomes are fed into a strategic discussion aiming to better inform the decision making process in Kaimana. We report on advantages and shortcomings of combining the two simulation programs and give an overview of the conservation and development outcomes under each of the scenarios explored for the Kaimana district.

Landscape modeling ; participatory modeling ; system dynamics ; STELLA ; GEOMOD ; IDRISI ; REDD ; Kaimana

2010

15 p.

3. Integrated socio-environmental modelling